Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -600 UVA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -11.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.5 (+4.5) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.3 (+4.7) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -10.4 (+4.6) | 141.9 (+5.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.4 (+4.6) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNC 85 – 80 UVA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNC 54 – 44 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | UVA 68 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UNC 71 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 11, 2023 | UVA 65 – 58 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#43) | 4.0 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#49) | 0.73 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#49) | 1.08 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#27) | 0.526 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.