Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -1.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -1.4 (-7.6) | 131.1 (+23.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -3.5 (-5.5) | 131.4 (+23.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -1.7 (-7.3) | 131.2 (+23.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -1.6 (-7.4) | 131.4 (+23.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-10 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#92) | 11.0 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#105) | 2.12 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#75) | 2.55 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#82) | 0.632 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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