Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -6.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -5.7 (+4.3) | 126.6 (+11.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -2.9 (+7.1) | 126.2 (+11.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -4.7 (+5.3) | 130.6 (+7.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -5.7 (+4.3) | 128.6 (+9.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#137) | 0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#71) | -0.28 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#76) | -0.19 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#66) | 0.488 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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