Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU -270 FRES +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +24 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -7.7 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -5.5 (+18.5) | 149.7 (+10.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -6.8 (+17.2) | 147.0 (+13.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -5.6 (+18.4) | 146.7 (+13.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -6.3 (+17.7) | 149.1 (+10.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | FRES 85 – 82 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 2-18 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#180) | -5.6 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#187) | -1.72 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#190) | -1.91 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#256) | 0.406 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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