Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU -138 FRES +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +12 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -3.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -3.1 (-15.1) | 139.7 (-13.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -1.9 (-13.9) | 142.3 (-16.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -1.4 (-13.4) | 143.9 (-17.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -1.7 (-13.7) | 141.0 (-15.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Jan 17, 2024 | FRES 85 – 82 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-9 |
| Away | 1-12 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#201) | -2.7 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#232) | -0.37 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#232) | -0.40 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#230) | 0.481 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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