Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -154 SJSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -0.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -0.6 (+3.6) | 139.8 (+27.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -0.9 (+3.9) | 138.1 (+28.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -0.1 (+2.9) | 138.5 (+28.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -0.3 (+3.3) | 139.6 (+27.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-9 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#253) | -0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#244) | -0.31 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#236) | -0.32 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#243) | 0.470 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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