Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -345 SJSU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -9.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -7.9 (+6.1) | 145.3 (+4.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -6.5 (+7.5) | 144.1 (+5.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -8.4 (+5.6) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -8.2 (+5.8) | 146.5 (+3.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | FRES 85 – 82 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#130) | -4.1 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#168) | -0.88 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#157) | -0.84 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#220) | 0.449 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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