Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +135 SJSU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +3 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -3.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -3.3 (+0.3) | 147.2 (+37.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -2.3 (-0.7) | 147.3 (+37.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -3.0 (-0.0) | 146.4 (+38.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -3.0 (-0.0) | 146.6 (+38.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | FRES 85 – 82 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 7-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-9 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#267) | 0.6 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#303) | -0.12 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#299) | -0.30 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#316) | 0.486 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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