Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU -102 FRES -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +15 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -0.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -2.2 (-17.2) | 140.2 (-15.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -1.3 (-16.3) | 141.3 (-16.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -1.1 (-16.1) | 143.0 (-18.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -1.2 (-16.2) | 141.0 (-16.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | FRES 85 – 82 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 6-10 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#211) | 0.7 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#234) | -0.49 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#223) | -0.57 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#203) | 0.473 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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