Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -6.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -4.9 (+4.1) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -5.9 (+3.1) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -5.9 (+3.1) | 138.6 (+0.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -5.9 (+3.1) | 137.8 (+1.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 57 NEV |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 68 NEV |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SDSU 80 – 61 NEV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 50 NEV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NEV 70 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#24) | 9.8 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#26) | 2.36 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#26) | 2.74 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#12) | 0.640 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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