Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -410 NEV +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +14 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -5.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -6.3 (+7.7) | 144.0 (-16.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -5.7 (+8.3) | 142.8 (-14.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -6.7 (+7.3) | 143.6 (-15.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -6.5 (+7.5) | 143.4 (-15.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 68 NEV |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SDSU 80 – 61 NEV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 50 NEV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NEV 70 – 66 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | SDSU 71 – 59 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#44) | 9.4 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#48) | 1.62 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#42) | 2.06 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#39) | 0.586 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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