Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -275 NEV +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -5.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -5.8 (+6.2) | 141.3 (-11.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -6.0 (+6.0) | 139.2 (-9.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -5.9 (+6.1) | 138.3 (-8.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -5.9 (+6.1) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 57 NEV |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 68 NEV |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SDSU 80 – 61 NEV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 50 NEV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NEV 70 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#28) | 11.2 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#13) | 2.37 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#15) | 2.73 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#5) | 0.603 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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