Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -320 NEV +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -6.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -6.9 (+12.1) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -7.0 (+12.0) | 132.3 (+8.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -6.4 (+12.6) | 134.0 (+7.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -6.4 (+12.6) | 135.2 (+5.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 57 NEV |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 68 NEV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 50 NEV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NEV 70 – 66 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | SDSU 71 – 59 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#58) | 8.0 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#41) | 0.75 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#41) | 1.25 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#28) | 0.517 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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