Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -167 SDSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -0.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -1.7 (+2.3) | 142.4 (-6.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -1.1 (+2.9) | 141.6 (-5.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -1.7 (+2.3) | 140.9 (-4.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.6 (+2.4) | 143.1 (-7.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 57 NEV |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 68 NEV |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SDSU 80 – 61 NEV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 50 NEV |
| Jan 18, 2024 | SDSU 71 – 59 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#47) | 13.6 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#26) | 2.63 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#33) | 3.18 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#32) | 0.655 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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