Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -108 SDSU -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -2.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -4.1 (-9.1) | 147.2 (-6.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -3.7 (-8.7) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -2.9 (-7.9) | 146.7 (-5.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -3.0 (-8.0) | 147.8 (-6.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 57 NEV |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SDSU 80 – 61 NEV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 50 NEV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NEV 70 – 66 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | SDSU 71 – 59 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#80) | 9.1 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#50) | 1.59 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#52) | 2.46 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#25) | 0.573 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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