Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -1.0 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UML -5.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -4.9 (+10.1) | 141.7 (+3.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -3.4 (+11.6) | 137.0 (+8.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -4.2 (+10.8) | 141.4 (+3.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -4.1 (+10.9) | 141.9 (+3.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVM 66 – 64 UML |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UVM 85 – 61 UML |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UVM 67 – 63 UML |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UVM 66 – 61 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 14-2 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-1 |
| Away | 9-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#142) | 0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#110) | 0.06 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#135) | -0.15 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#136) | 0.522 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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