Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -400 AF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -8.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -6.1 (-17.1) | 136.1 (+22.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -7.9 (-18.9) | 133.4 (+25.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -5.3 (-16.3) | 139.1 (+19.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -5.9 (-16.9) | 139.5 (+19.5) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#99) | 0.6 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#137) | -0.23 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#134) | -0.38 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#129) | 0.464 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.1 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 16.3% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.