Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -3200 AF +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +29 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -21.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -17.9 (+11.1) | 133.2 (-0.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -20.0 (+9.0) | 132.1 (+0.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -16.6 (+12.4) | 133.5 (-0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -16.9 (+12.1) | 134.2 (-1.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | CSU 78 – 69 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 0-20 |
| Home | 12-6 | 3-15 |
| Away | 6-5 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#98) | -12.5 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#98) | -2.08 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#92) | -2.51 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#97) | 0.426 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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