Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -3000 AF +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -17.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -15.1 (+5.9) | 132.6 (+4.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -16.9 (+4.1) | 133.2 (+3.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -14.9 (+6.1) | 135.6 (+1.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -15.0 (+6.0) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | CSU 78 – 69 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 1-19 |
| Home | 14-2 | 3-13 |
| Away | 7-4 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#81) | -6.7 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#77) | -2.21 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#78) | -2.45 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#82) | 0.403 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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