Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | AF +1000 CSU -1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +17 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -16.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+33.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -15.3 (-1.7) | 135.0 (+30.0) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -15.1 (-1.9) | 131.1 (+33.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -15.4 (-1.6) | 131.5 (+33.5) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -14.5 (-2.5) | 129.5 (+35.5) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | CSU 78 – 69 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 11-9 |
| Home | 3-15 | 12-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L25 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#347) | 5.6 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#334) | 0.71 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#315) | 1.19 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#302) | 0.513 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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