Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | AF +450 CSU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -13.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -12.8 (+3.8) | 132.5 (+22.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -12.8 (+3.8) | 132.1 (+22.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -13.7 (+4.7) | 135.4 (+19.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -14.1 (+5.1) | 133.9 (+21.1) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | CSU 78 – 69 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-12 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#251) | 12.1 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#274) | 2.09 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#265) | 2.69 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#291) | 0.598 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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