Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -2000 AF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -21.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -14.8 (-5.8) | 132.6 (+14.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -16.1 (-7.1) | 134.5 (+12.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -16.8 (-7.8) | 135.2 (+11.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -17.2 (-8.2) | 136.2 (+10.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-12 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#20) | -3.7 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#22) | -0.82 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#18) | -0.88 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#10) | 0.442 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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