Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | AF +550 CSU -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +22 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -13.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -14.4 (-7.6) | 134.8 (-2.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -13.8 (-8.2) | 134.7 (-2.7) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -13.1 (-8.9) | 133.8 (-1.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -13.1 (-8.9) | 136.2 (-4.2) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | CSU 78 – 69 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 16-4 |
| Home | 3-13 | 14-2 |
| Away | 0-14 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#290) | 8.9 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#340) | 1.61 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#326) | 1.99 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#334) | 0.558 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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