Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ND -2.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -1.1 (-0.1) | 138.1 (+6.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.5 (-2.5) | 137.4 (+7.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -1.2 (-0.2) | 137.2 (+7.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -0.6 (+0.4) | 138.8 (+6.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#171) | 1.4 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#178) | 0.51 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#144) | 0.46 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#172) | 0.521 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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