I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
Atlantic Coast Conference · Purcell Pavilion · February 14, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ND -5.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money ND -265 / GT +215
Model Predictions
Spread Total ND win
Actual ND +15 163 Won
Massey ND -9.0 (+6.0)
Massey Totals 150.3 (+12.7)
Bradley-Terry 83%
Weighted B-T 90%
Efficiency Plus ML ND -9.1 (+5.9) 148.1 (+14.9) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML ND -9.0 (+6.0) 147.1 (+15.9) 80%
Baseline ML ND -8.4 (+6.6) 148.5 (+14.5) 81%
Baseline Plus ML ND -9.0 (+6.0) 148.3 (+14.7) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 29, 2025 ND 7168 GT
Dec 31, 2024 GT 8675 ND
Mar 12, 2024 ND 8480 GT
Feb 15, 2024 ND 5855 GT
Jan 10, 2024 ND 7568 GT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ND GT
Overall 13-18 11-20
Conference 4-14 2-16
Home 10-7 10-9
Away 2-9 1-9
Neutral 1-2 0-2
Last 5 0-5 0-5
Streak L2 L12
Avg Pts For 74.5 73.8
Avg Pts Against 75.3 77.4
Massey 7.4 (#82) 1.4 (#145)
Bradley-Terry 0.96 (#87) -0.14 (#187)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.38 (#85) -0.29 (#190)
RPI 0.536 (#97) 0.484 (#217)
Shooting & Four Factors ND GT
FG% 44.9% 44.6%
3PT% 35.6% 36.8%
REB / G 37.0 38.4
OREB / G 11.2 11.0
AST / TO 1.07 1.24
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.4% 50.3%
TOV% 17.0% 18.2%
ORB% 31.8% 30.8%
FT Rate 22.8% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.9% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 14.1% 15.2%
DRB% 73.7% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 25.0% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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