Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ND -265 GT +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ND -9.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -9.0 (+6.0) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -9.1 (+5.9) | 148.1 (+14.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -9.0 (+6.0) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -8.4 (+6.6) | 148.5 (+14.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
| Jan 10, 2024 | ND 75 – 68 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-9 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#82) | 1.4 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#87) | -0.14 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#85) | -0.29 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#97) | 0.484 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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