Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | ND -115 GT -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ND -0.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+33.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -0.8 (+4.8) | 136.0 (+28.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -0.6 (+4.6) | 136.2 (+27.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -0.1 (+4.1) | 133.7 (+30.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GT -0.2 (+4.2) | 135.5 (+28.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
| Jan 10, 2024 | ND 75 – 68 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#128) | 2.7 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#139) | 0.95 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#131) | 0.80 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#193) | 0.525 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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