Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GT -130 ND +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | GT -0.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -0.5 (+10.5) | 143.3 (+17.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -1.0 (+10.0) | 143.3 (+17.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -0.8 (+10.2) | 142.7 (+18.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -0.1 (+10.9) | 142.1 (+18.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
| Jan 10, 2024 | ND 75 – 68 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#122) | 6.2 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#234) | 0.43 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#236) | 1.21 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#262) | 0.525 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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