Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | GT -278 ND +222 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | GT -6.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -5.4 (-12.4) | 133.1 (+9.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -5.4 (-12.4) | 135.6 (+7.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -5.0 (-12.0) | 132.9 (+10.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GT -5.3 (-12.3) | 133.5 (+9.5) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | -0.2 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#85) | -0.37 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#91) | -0.41 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#67) | 0.509 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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