Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ND -175 GT +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | ND -3.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -1.9 (+1.1) | 134.2 (-21.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -0.6 (+2.4) | 135.0 (-22.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -1.6 (+1.4) | 131.6 (-18.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -2.1 (+0.9) | 132.6 (-19.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Jan 10, 2024 | ND 75 – 68 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#148) | 1.4 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#194) | 0.56 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#181) | 0.35 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#215) | 0.513 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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