Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ND -380 GT +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ND -7.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -7.4 (-4.4) | 144.3 (-5.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -6.5 (-3.5) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -7.0 (-4.0) | 143.3 (-4.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -6.8 (-3.8) | 142.8 (-3.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
| Jan 10, 2024 | ND 75 – 68 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#84) | 2.7 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | -0.22 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#109) | -0.14 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#174) | 0.465 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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