Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +180 BEL -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -6.4 (-8.6) | 143.9 (-10.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -7.1 (-7.9) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -6.3 (-8.7) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -6.7 (-8.3) | 143.7 (-10.7) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | BEL 78 – 77 VAL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | BEL 78 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VAL 101 – 86 BEL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BEL 71 – 64 VAL |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BEL 86 – 61 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#318) | 1.5 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#305) | 0.50 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#309) | 0.30 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#325) | 0.536 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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