Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -1400 VAL +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +25 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -10.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -9.9 (+15.1) | 147.1 (-0.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -9.8 (+15.2) | 146.0 (+1.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -10.0 (+15.0) | 145.4 (+1.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -10.1 (+14.9) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | BEL 78 – 77 VAL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | BEL 78 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VAL 101 – 86 BEL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BEL 71 – 64 VAL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | BEL 96 – 78 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | -7.3 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#111) | -1.40 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#108) | -1.38 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#79) | 0.431 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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