He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Valparaiso Beacons
77 78
FINAL Conference
Belmont Bruins
Missouri Valley Conference · Athletics-Recreation Center · January 29, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread BEL -5.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money VAL +185 / BEL -225
Model Predictions
Spread Total VAL win
Actual BEL +1 155 Lost
Massey BEL -6.3 (+5.3)
Massey Totals 146.6 (+8.4)
Bradley-Terry 21%
Weighted B-T 11%
Efficiency Plus ML BEL -4.8 (+3.8) 140.2 (+14.8) 35%
Baseline Tuned ML BEL -6.3 (+5.3) 139.5 (+15.5) 26%
Baseline ML BEL -4.9 (+3.9) 140.1 (+14.9) 30%
Baseline Plus ML BEL -3.6 (+2.6) 139.5 (+15.5) 35%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 14, 2026 BEL 7874 VAL
Feb 13, 2025 VAL 10186 BEL
Jan 15, 2025 BEL 7164 VAL
Mar 7, 2024 BEL 8661 VAL
Feb 10, 2024 BEL 9678 VAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VAL BEL
Overall 18-15 26-6
Conference 11-9 16-4
Home 13-4 13-2
Away 4-10 11-3
Neutral 1-1 2-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 71.2 83.5
Avg Pts Against 71.9 74.1
Massey -0.0 (#168) 9.5 (#66)
Bradley-Terry -0.25 (#203) 1.63 (#65)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.22 (#189) 2.50 (#56)
RPI 0.472 (#224) 0.576 (#56)
Shooting & Four Factors VAL BEL
FG% 39.9% 51.5%
3PT% 31.9% 39.8%
REB / G 36.7 37.0
OREB / G 11.9 8.9
AST / TO 1.00 1.30
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.8% 60.1%
TOV% 16.0% 19.1%
ORB% 31.8% 29.0%
FT Rate 28.9% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 47.4%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 18.3%
DRB% 68.7% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 27.5% 20.9%

Game Analysis

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