Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +185 BEL -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -6.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -3.6 (+2.6) | 139.5 (+15.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -4.8 (+3.8) | 140.2 (+14.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -6.3 (+5.3) | 139.5 (+15.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -4.9 (+3.9) | 140.1 (+14.9) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | BEL 78 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VAL 101 – 86 BEL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BEL 71 – 64 VAL |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BEL 86 – 61 VAL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | BEL 96 – 78 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 26-6 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#168) | 9.5 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#203) | 1.63 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#189) | 2.50 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#224) | 0.576 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 60.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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