Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -290 VAL +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -7.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (-31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -5.9 (+1.1) | 156.9 (-21.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -7.8 (-0.8) | 156.1 (-21.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -4.8 (+2.2) | 155.7 (-20.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -5.1 (+1.9) | 157.4 (-22.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | BEL 78 – 77 VAL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | BEL 78 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VAL 101 – 86 BEL |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BEL 86 – 61 VAL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | BEL 96 – 78 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#138) | -2.2 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#82) | -0.04 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#103) | -0.26 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#64) | 0.489 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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