Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +165 BEL -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +15 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -3.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -3.3 (+18.3) | 158.1 (+28.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -4.3 (+19.3) | 155.8 (+31.2) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -3.6 (+18.6) | 158.3 (+28.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -3.6 (+18.6) | 157.7 (+29.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | BEL 78 – 77 VAL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | BEL 78 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BEL 71 – 64 VAL |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BEL 86 – 61 VAL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | BEL 96 – 78 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#238) | 2.0 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#248) | 1.01 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#264) | 0.94 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#275) | 0.546 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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