Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +260 BEL -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +18 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -2.9 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -3.3 (-14.7) | 149.1 (+24.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -4.7 (-13.3) | 146.9 (+27.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -3.3 (-14.7) | 146.9 (+27.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -3.6 (-14.4) | 148.1 (+25.9) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | BEL 78 – 77 VAL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | BEL 78 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VAL 101 – 86 BEL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BEL 71 – 64 VAL |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BEL 86 – 61 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-11 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#280) | -0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#293) | 0.45 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#276) | 0.54 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#275) | 0.526 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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