Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -750 VAL +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -14.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -11.9 (-7.9) | 144.6 (+7.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -11.1 (-7.1) | 145.5 (+6.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -12.1 (-8.1) | 142.3 (+9.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -12.3 (-8.3) | 142.2 (+9.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | BEL 78 – 77 VAL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VAL 101 – 86 BEL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BEL 71 – 64 VAL |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BEL 86 – 61 VAL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | BEL 96 – 78 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-6 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 11-3 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#63) | -1.3 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#73) | -0.52 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#50) | -0.54 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#75) | 0.449 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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