Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +11 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -0.6 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -0.5 (-11.5) | 138.9 (-15.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -1.4 (-12.4) | 138.4 (-15.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -0.6 (-11.6) | 137.9 (-14.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -0.6 (-11.6) | 137.0 (-14.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | FLA 79 – 61 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FLA 79 – 65 LSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | FLA 82 – 80 LSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | FLA 79 – 67 LSU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | LSU 64 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 0-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#100) | 9.2 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#40) | 0.81 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#58) | 1.34 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#54) | 0.541 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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