Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -700 LSU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -9.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -9.4 (-7.4) | 162.6 (-0.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -9.5 (-7.5) | 160.2 (+1.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -8.9 (-6.9) | 160.3 (+1.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -9.1 (-7.1) | 161.9 (+0.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | FLA 79 – 61 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FLA 79 – 65 LSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | FLA 79 – 67 LSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | FLA 67 – 56 LSU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | LSU 64 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#32) | 6.8 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#31) | 0.97 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#23) | 1.51 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#28) | 0.521 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 44.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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