Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -11.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -8.5 (+3.5) | 143.1 (+2.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -10.2 (+1.8) | 142.6 (+3.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -10.5 (+1.5) | 144.2 (+1.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -9.7 (+2.3) | 143.8 (+2.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | FLA 79 – 61 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FLA 79 – 65 LSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | FLA 82 – 80 LSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | FLA 67 – 56 LSU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | LSU 64 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#57) | 1.5 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#74) | 0.41 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#70) | 0.40 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#93) | 0.487 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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