Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -170 LSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | LSU -6.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -4.6 (-1.4) | 138.9 (-16.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -2.2 (-3.8) | 137.1 (-15.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -5.9 (-0.1) | 136.0 (-14.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -5.4 (-0.6) | 135.7 (-13.7) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | FLA 79 – 61 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FLA 79 – 65 LSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | FLA 82 – 80 LSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | FLA 79 – 67 LSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | FLA 67 – 56 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#38) | 21.5 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#87) | 4.16 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#79) | 5.28 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#90) | 0.690 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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