Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -1600 LSU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -10.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -12.1 (+5.9) | 154.2 (-14.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -10.9 (+7.1) | 152.6 (-12.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -11.2 (+6.8) | 153.5 (-13.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -10.9 (+7.1) | 153.6 (-13.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | FLA 79 – 65 LSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | FLA 82 – 80 LSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | FLA 79 – 67 LSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | FLA 67 – 56 LSU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | LSU 64 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#11) | 13.2 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#18) | 1.76 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#13) | 2.67 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#17) | 0.561 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 46.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 16.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 43.5% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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