Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | LSU +360 FLA -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +14 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -11.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -9.7 (-4.3) | 150.0 (-6.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -8.5 (-5.5) | 148.4 (-4.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -8.5 (-5.5) | 150.3 (-6.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -9.4 (-4.6) | 149.7 (-5.7) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | FLA 79 – 61 LSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | FLA 82 – 80 LSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | FLA 79 – 67 LSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | FLA 67 – 56 LSU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | LSU 64 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L6 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#65) | 23.4 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#61) | 4.37 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#66) | 5.76 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#135) | 0.654 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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