Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Southeastern Conference · Rupp Arena · January 11, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UK -20.0 Away covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UK win
Actual SC +3 139 Lost
Massey UK -20.3 (-23.3)
Massey Totals 133.7 (+5.3)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Efficiency Plus ML UK -14.9 (-17.9) 135.5 (+3.5) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML UK -14.1 (-17.1) 139.5 (-0.5) 89%
Baseline ML UK -15.0 (-18.0) 140.8 (-1.8) 88%
Baseline Plus ML UK -15.8 (-18.8) 138.3 (+0.7) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 25, 2026 UK 7263 SC
Feb 8, 2025 UK 8057 SC
Jan 24, 2024 SC 7962 UK
Feb 9, 2022 UK 8676 SC
Mar 6, 2021 UK 9264 SC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UK SC
Overall 22-12 11-21
Conference 12-6 4-14
Home 14-4 7-8
Away 6-4 4-8
Neutral 2-4 0-5
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.5 64.3
Avg Pts Against 67.8 72.6
Massey 9.5 (#49) -6.6 (#293)
Bradley-Terry 1.72 (#54) -0.15 (#195)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.06 (#63) -0.53 (#217)
RPI 0.570 (#64) 0.479 (#211)
Shooting & Four Factors UK SC
FG% 45.9% 39.6%
3PT% 38.1% 31.1%
REB / G 39.8 36.0
OREB / G 14.1 12.9
AST / TO 1.44 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 46.0%
TOV% 17.3% 19.4%
ORB% 38.8% 34.4%
FT Rate 19.3% 15.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 52.7%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 16.7%
DRB% 73.3% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 20.9% 15.8%

Game Analysis

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