Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +100 CMU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +19 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | NIU -0.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -0.4 (+18.6) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -1.4 (+17.6) | 137.1 (-10.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -0.4 (+18.6) | 137.2 (-10.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -0.2 (+18.8) | 137.6 (-10.6) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CMU 88 – 46 NIU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NIU 74 – 73 CMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | NIU 83 – 81 CMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CMU 71 – 66 NIU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | CMU 69 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 7-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#314) | -4.6 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#297) | -1.67 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#295) | -2.02 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#265) | 0.399 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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