Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CMU -2500 NIU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | CMU -15.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -12.6 (-14.6) | 146.4 (+17.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -11.3 (-13.3) | 145.7 (+18.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -12.4 (-14.4) | 143.4 (+20.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -12.0 (-14.0) | 144.7 (+19.3) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CMU 88 – 46 NIU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NIU 74 – 73 CMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CMU 71 – 66 NIU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | CMU 69 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | CMU 84 – 77 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-10 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#209) | -15.0 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#242) | -3.19 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#237) | -3.56 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#211) | 0.371 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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