Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CMU -175 NIU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -3.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -3.2 (+3.8) | 143.2 (+17.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -2.3 (+4.7) | 140.4 (+20.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -3.8 (+3.2) | 141.8 (+19.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -3.8 (+3.2) | 141.4 (+19.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CMU 88 – 46 NIU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NIU 74 – 73 CMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | NIU 83 – 81 CMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CMU 71 – 66 NIU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | CMU 69 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#286) | -6.5 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#175) | -1.00 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#205) | -1.11 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#181) | 0.468 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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