Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CMU -205 NIU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +42 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -3.6 (+38.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -2.7 (+39.3) | 140.5 (-6.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -3.4 (+38.6) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -2.6 (+39.4) | 139.3 (-5.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -2.4 (+39.6) | 140.5 (-6.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | NIU 74 – 73 CMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | NIU 83 – 81 CMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CMU 71 – 66 NIU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | CMU 69 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | CMU 84 – 77 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 1-15 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#297) | -9.4 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#308) | -1.31 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#288) | -1.91 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#308) | 0.442 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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