Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +125 CMU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -2.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -1.1 (-7.1) | 141.5 (-9.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -0.0 (-6.0) | 138.8 (-6.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -0.0 (-6.0) | 139.8 (-7.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -0.2 (-5.8) | 142.3 (-10.3) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CMU 88 – 46 NIU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NIU 74 – 73 CMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | NIU 83 – 81 CMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CMU 71 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | CMU 84 – 77 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#298) | -6.4 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#275) | -0.06 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#286) | -0.58 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#253) | 0.498 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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