Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +26 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -1.8 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.0 (-24.0) | 135.2 (-9.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.0 (-23.0) | 136.9 (-10.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.4 (-23.6) | 136.3 (-10.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.1 (-23.9) | 137.0 (-11.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ILL 78 – 69 NEB |
| Dec 13, 2025 | NEB 83 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NEB 80 – 74 ILL |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ILL 98 – 87 NEB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ILL 87 – 84 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#90) | 11.7 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#68) | 1.83 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#70) | 2.29 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#67) | 0.562 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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